Modelling the Future Energy Scenarios of Bamako City, Mali
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With the average energy use of 0.27 toe per capita, whereby 78 % came from traditional use of biomass in 2016, Mali is one of the poorest country energy use in the world and the situation is projected to be worse as the country is an unlocked country without oil resources, and its population and urbanization annual growth is projected to be 3.8 and 4 % respectively. Bamako city, the largest city and the fastest growing city in Saharan Africa in 2006, is a mirror of the country. With the limited energy resources (only renewable energy resources), the best understanding of the future trends of energy demand is crucial and imperative in the purpose to help the planner and policy maker to elaborate a proper decision. This study was to have a clear landscape of next 15 years of energy consumption (end-use and by fuels) in the key sectors: Household, Commercial, industrial and transport under the business as usual scenario (BAU) and alternatives Scenarios such as Efficient Cooking stoves (ECT), Efficient Fridges (EFR), and Access to Modern Energy (ACC) for the city. The hybrid model (Bottom-up and Top-down) has been used to project the future energy demand for those key sectors from 2013 to 2033, by using the LEAP software and own generator electricity generated estimated. As an input of the model primary data has been collected through surveys, questionnaires, focuses group discussions across the key sectors and stakeholders and augmented from the literature and online sources. The results showed that, under the BAU scenario, the total energy demand in 2033 would reach 51 billion Terajoules , where the Household and Transport sectors would remain the two main energy consumption sectors , followed by Industry, and Commercial (formal and informal) sector and the Charcoal and cooking for household would remain the main fuel and energy service. Under both EST and EFR scenarios, 439.2 thousand tonnes of charcoal,229 GWh of electricity could be saving in 2033 such 166 million USD saving, while the impact of ACC scenario would reach on 252 thousand USD in 2033. From the supply side the own generator electricity generating accounted for household sector around 14 % of the household electricity consumption, over 7 % for both informal and formal commercial electricity consumption, and over 5 % for industry electricity consumption. It has concluded that both EST and EFR scenario would remain the best measures in term of energy and cost saving.