Modelling the next Energy Transition in Nigeria to Achieve Sustainable Development and Mitigate Climate Change

Abstract

Projections for future energy demand have time and time again been employed for the planning and sustainable utilisation of available energy resources. Having in perspective the current energy transition occurring globally, and in Nigeria, and the need to use available energy resources sustainably this study employed scenario based modelling to explore and analyse what the future national energy demand in Nigeria could look like. Energy demand is highly influenced by demography and economic growth among other factors, hence for the sake of analysis, four (4) growth scenarios were explored; the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, low growth (LG) scenario, medium growth (MG) scenario and high growth (HG) scenario. Each scenario has its own unique average annual economic growth rate of 4.6%, 6.08%, 7.37% and 10.18% per annum for the BAU, LG, MG and HG respectively. The findings of this study provide adequate indications that the household sector will continue to lead all other groups with regards to total annual energy demand regardless of the growth rate of the economy within the period under study (2010-2030). In the manufacturing, agriculture, construction, mining and service sector, energy efficiency would play a pivotal role in determining future energy demand, for the transport sector passenger activity would play a major role while in the household sector the fuel of choice for cooking and water heating is pivotal in influencing future energy demands. To quicken the rate of energy transition in the household sector to achieve sustainable development an alternative energy transition scenario was considered for the household sector which was done to explore what the future demand could be if LPG becomes the fuel of choice in the household sector.