EVALUATION AND MODELING OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN IBADAN, NIGERIA

Abstract

Water scarcity is increasing in Ibadan, Nigeria due to increasing population, urbanization, increase in standard of living and increasing deteriorating state of urban water supply schemes thereby putting pressure on the available water sources. This research focused on trend analysis of past hydroclimatic data and modeling of future water demand. Two methods were used to achieve the objectives of this research, firstly, non-parametric statistics was used to determine the trend of rainfall and temperature for a period of 30 years while water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model was used to model the implication of external factors and management approaches on future water supply and demand deficit between 2021 and 2040. Result of the trend analysis revealed monotonic trend in rainfall time series data during wet and dry season while there was no trend in the annual rainfall at 5% significant level. The WEAP model result showed an increasing magnitude of all the external factors scenarios impacting on the available water while the two management approaches used show decreasing magnitude on the unsatisfied water demand when compared with the reference scenario. To prevent severe future water shortage in the study area, good management strategies and development of urban water supply infrastructures must be ensured.