A Systems Dynamics approach to model Cameroon’s Sustainable Energy

Abstract

Energy is crucial for all development processes. Therefore, its availability in creating industries, processing raw materials and building a modern economy cannot be overemphasized. One of the challenges meeting the human race is planning for and meeting the energy needs and demands of the future. This thesis uses a systems dynamics approach to model the electricity demand of Cameroon. Considering the dynamic nature of energy systems, causal relationships and feedback loops are used to model the interactions between the different intervening variables of the sociotechnical system characterized by the energy transition. The intervening parameters considered are; population growth rates, GDP per capita, GDP growth rates, Economic growth rates represented by the Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR), energy consumption (electricity consumption per capita), electricity prices and other socio-economic and techno-economic parameters. Furthermore, a timeseries of the dynamic evolution is developed for a period of 60 years starting from 1990 to 2050. 1990 is used as the base year from which the modelling process starts and 2050 as the end period of the modelling process. Whenever possible, the model is calibrated to reproduce the historical outputs for the period of 1990-2020. Several scenarios were created based on transparent underlying assumptions and the country’s energy sector development strategy. The model is simulated and the effects of varying any or all of the above intervening parameters on the electricity demand is examined. Our model shows that the electricity demand of the country will increase with population and economic growth and an increase share of renewables in the energy mix. The population of Cameroon according to our results is expected to reach 38.8 million and 58 million by 2035 and 2050 respectively and the actual electricity demand is expected to reach about 19.3 TWh by 2035 and about 45 TWh by 2050. Increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix is an important way of decreasing the CO2 emissions by 32% by 2035 as planned by the government in Cameroon’s Vision 2035 document. Therefore, we show that, if the assumption outlined in the Vision 2035 are kept, renewables are the best energy resource for the Cameroonian economy.