Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Peanut Productivity in Bambey, Senegal, Using the DSSAT Model

Abstract

Climate change presents a major challenge to agriculture, particularly in rainfed systems such as Senegal’s peanut basin. This study evaluates the potential impacts of climate change on peanut productivity in Bambey, Senegal, using the DSSAT CROPGRO-Peanut model. A multi model ensemble from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) was utilized to assess historical climate trends and project future conditions under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The study further examines the effectiveness of various crop management strategies in mitigating climate change effects. The findings reveal a statistically significant annual and monthly increasing trend (Z-value > 1.96 at α = 0.05) in both maximum and minimum temperatures across past and future periods, highlighting a consistent warming trend. In contrast, annual and monthly rainfall patterns demonstrate relative stability, with no significant trends toward decreasing precipitation (-1.96 < Z-value < 0). However, an exception is observed in August, the wettest month, which exhibits a statistically significant decline in rainfall (Z-value < -1.96) during the baseline period and across future climate scenarios. This deviation suggests a potential shift in the rainfall regime during a critical period of the growing season. Simulation results indicate that while biomass production may experience a marginal increase of approximately 2.5 to 3.2% in the near future, depending on the climate scenario and variety, a decline of 3.2 to 17.7% is projected in the mid-term future. Conversely, grain yields are expected to decrease across all future periods, with reductions intensifying over time. Specifically, yield losses are estimated at 1.9 to 5.6% in the near future and 23.3 to 48.9% in the mid-term future, depending on the climate scenario and variety. However, the adoption of crop management strategies, such as short-cycle varieties and optimal sowing date adjustments between July 11 and July 21, can help mitigate yield losses. These findings highlight the importance of climate-smart agricultural practices, including improved water and soil management, diversified cropping systems, and strengthened adaptation policies. The study provides critical insights for policymakers, researchers, and farmers in developing strategies to sustain peanut production in the face of climate change.