| dc.description.abstract | The increase of climate change-induced events, such as flooding, has intensified, particularly
impacting developing countries over the last few decades. It is essential to develop flood
hazard maps to identify and protect vulnerable regions. This will also help establish early
warnings system execute both structural and non-structural measures effectively. The study
area is the Rift Valley basin of Ethiopia, which has experienced 11 out of 15 recorded flood
events in the past. The aim is to forecast the impacts of climate change on flooding,
considering both present and future climate scenarios. Through the participatory approach by
engaging stakeholders, this study evaluates the reliability of conventional flood risk
assessment approaches. Primary and secondary datasets were acquired through field visits and
from both non-governmental and governmental organizations. To achieve the objectives of the
study, eight flood risk indicators namely, rainfall, DR, land elevation, slope, TRI, TWI, LULC,
and soil type were chosen. Two climate scenarios namely SSP245 and SSP585 were used to
project the near and far future rainfall based on CMIP6. The study makes use of three standout
climate models namely, NoRESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, and CanESM5. The AHP model and
PGIS were used for relative importance analysis, including affected communities from Bilate,
Kulfo Gina, Sile-sego, and Lake Hassa sub-basins. The finding revealed that in 2060, both
SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show an increasing trend in high and very high flood-risk areas,
with SSP585 indicating a more considerable rise. By 2100, the spatial distribution of very high
and high class concentrates in the northern and central parts, emphasizing greater risk under
SSP585. Comparison with the baseline period reveals a spatiotemporal change, suggesting
climate change's potential contribution to increased flood likelihood and extent in the Rift
Valley basin | en_US |
