ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN THE COASTAL SAVANNAH AGROECOLOGICAL ZONE OF GHANA

Abstract

Agriculture though an important livelihood venture and a contributor to food security is still a rain dependent sector within Ghana and largely managed by smallholder farmers. As arable land diminishes and the impacts of climate change escalate, it becomes crucial to assess the future of cassava production and yield in the KEEA municipality located within the Coastal Savannah Agroecological Zone, a major cassava breadbasket of Ghana. This study utilized agroclimatology data from NASA Power and WorldClim to predict the near (2021-2040) and far (2081-2100) climate scenarios for KEEA municipality. In addition, a purposive sampling method was used to select 254 cassava farmers and semi-structured questionnaires were administered to assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impact on cassava yield. The data was analysed using ArcGIS 10.8, SPSS 27, and XLSTAT 2024. The result showed that in the near future (2021-2040) maximum temperature (Tmax) is projected to decrease under SSP2 while under SSP5, a slight increase ranging from 0.1°C to 0.2°C is anticipated. In contrast, minimum temperatures (Tmin) are expected to rise under both SSP2 and SSP5. Additionally, a significant decrease in precipitation (rainfall) is anticipated under both scenarios, with SSP5 indicating a slight increase of 1mm. In contrast to the near future, the far future (2081-2100) is expected to witness a notable increase in temperatures under both the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios. Maximum temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 1°C under SSP2 and by nearly 3°C under SSP5. Concurrently, minimum temperatures are anticipated to increase by approximately 1°C under SSP2 and by around 3.2°C under SSP5. However, the results for precipitation indicate a general decrease under both scenarios. In addition, the survey results showed that a majority (82.68%) of farmers within the KEEA municipality were conscious of climate change and acknowledged its potential consequences for their cassava productivity. Furthermore, a regression analysis revealed that climatic factors exerted little influence, accounting for 19.4% and 10.2% of the variations in cassava production and yields respectively. The findings of this study have implications for providing location-specific policies such as enhancing extension services within the municipality to bridge this information gap and introducing improved cassava varieties that are resilient and well-suited to the anticipated climate conditions