| dc.description.abstract | Climate change presents a critical global challenge, particularly impacting the sustainability and
resilience of ecosystems and human societies, with a heightened effect in sub-Saharan Africa. The
Dosso region of Niger, home to over 3 million people, faces the highest multi-hazard risk in West
Africa due to recurrent extreme weather and climate events. However, there is a lack of
information on future climate hazards in Dosso. This study utilizes the ensemble mean of five
CMIP6-based GCMs and sixteen core indices from the WMO ET-SCI to analyze the projected
temperature and precipitation patterns and their extremes in Dosso for the future period (2025
2060) with reference period (1979-2014), under low-emission scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6) and high
emission scenarios (SSP3 RCP 7.0). The study's results indicate a slight average increase of 65
mm/year in annual rainfall with no significant trend under SSP126 scenarios and a more
pronounced increase of 150 mm/year under SSP370 scenarios. The GCM ensemble mean projects
an average annual temperature rise of 1ºC under SSP126 scenarios and 1.5ºC under SSP370
scenarios for the future period. Extreme precipitation-based indices exhibit no significant trend
under SSP1-RCP26 scenarios, while significant positive trends are observed under SSP3-RCP70
scenarios, except for consecutive wet days and consecutive dry days which show slightly
decreasing and increasing insignificant trends, respectively. Conversely, under both SSP1-RCP2.6
and SSP3-RCP7.0 scenarios, all extreme temperature-based indices demonstrate statistically
significant positive trends at confidence levels of 99.9% and 100, respectively, for the future
period. Assessment of local perceptions of climate change in Dosso aligns with the study's
findings, with respondents identifying droughts, floods, and heat waves as the primary extreme
events. The analysis underscores that groundwater resources are the most significantly impacted
by climate change in Dosso, followed by agriculture and livestock. This study offers valuable
insights for rural project planners, policymakers, researchers, and local communities to develop
effective adaptation strategies in response to the current and future impacts of climate change in
the Dosso region of Niger | en_US |
