CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SNOW COVER DYNAMICS IN THE RWENZORI MOUNTAINS, EAST AFRICA

Abstract

This study conducts a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on snow cover dynamics within the Rwenzori Mountains, employing an extensive dataset to delve into historical trends and future projections. Focused on evaluating climate patterns from 1991 to 2020 and forecasting future scenarios under SSP245 and SSP585, the research analyzes snow cover changes from 2000 to 2022 and projects forthcoming snow dynamics. Using reanalysis climate data from CHIRPS and CHIRTS for rainfall and temperature, respectively, alongside MODIS snow cover observations, the study methodically investigates past climate and snow cover trends. The J2000 hydrological model, calibrated and validated with actual snow cover data, is used to simulate future snow dynamics amidst evolving climate conditions. The intricate analysis of interannual, seasonal, and monthly variations in both climate and snow cover data, was supported by advanced statistics for trend analysis and model assessment. Historical data underscore significant climatic shifts over recent decades, with rising temperatures and variable rainfall patterns significantly influencing snow cover dynamics. Notably, the analysis reveals a clear warming trend, alongside marked interannual rainfall variability. These climatic changes are expected to persist in future projections. These climatic changes are closely linked to variations in snow cover dynamics, underscoring the sensitivity of the Rwenzori Mountains' snow cover to climate fluctuations. Forecasts from the J2000 model suggest significant decreases in future snow cover across various scenarios, although a modest rise is anticipated on Mount Baker in the near term (2030-2065). The observed trends in climate and snow cover dynamics highlight the acute susceptibility of the Rwenzori Mountains to current and imminent climate change impacts. By offering crucial insights into the effects of climate change on alpine snow cover, this study lays a solid foundation for subsequent research and informs policy development in climate adaptation and hydrological management.