Assessing Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts in the Mitidja Plain- Algeria: Trends and Impacts on Agricultural Productivity

Abstract

Droughts threaten water resources and agricultural productivity, particularly in semi-arid regions like the Mitidja Plain, Algeria. This study comprehensively assesses meteorological and agricultural droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from 1981 to 2040 and the Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI) from 1981 to 2021. Data from nine meteorological stations were meticulously analyzed after bias correction using the CMhyd and CHIPS tools to enhance accuracy. The results indicate a balanced distribution between wet and dry months, with no significant trends detected in meteorological drought (SPI-12) via the Mann-Kendall test. However, the agricultural drought analysis (aSPI-12) revealed a significant increasing trend, correlating with improved crop yields, particularly in citrus production. This improvement is likely due to enhanced adequate precipitation and modernized agricultural practices that bolster crop resilience against climatic variability. Spatial drought mapping identified the central Mitidja Plain as the most drought-sensitive region, with elevation playing a crucial role in influencing drought severity. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate future drought risks and sustain agricultural productivity amid climatic variability. Integrating these insights into water resource management and agricultural policies is essential for ensuring the sustainability and resilience of agricultural systems in this vulnerable region.