THE CURRENT STATE AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE OF URBAN WATER SECURITY IN KINSHASA, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC)

Abstract

Low water security is widely recognized by policymakers and academics as a global risk and policy challenge especially in rapidly urbanizing cities. Kinshasa, the capital and largest city of the Democratic Republic of Congo, faces significant, yet paradoxical challenges to achieve urban water security. This study evaluates the present and future urban water security in Kinshasa, across seven key dimensions: availability, accessibility, health, and sanitation, affordability, environment, water-related disaster and governance. The mini-max approach is used to normalize indicators to a scale of 1 to 5, and the weighted sum approach to calculate both dimensional and overall, the urban water index from 2015 to 2024. Furthermore, a scenario-based approach was applied to evaluate the future water state of Kinshasa considering the business-as-usual scenario and an improvement scenario up to 2040. Results revealed that the overall urban water security from 2015 to 2024 remained fair security with an overall index fluctuating between 1.69 and 2.09. In the seven dimensions of urban water security, water related disasters exhibited a good security range fluctuating between 4 to 4.4, followed by the affordability dimension which showed improvement rising from 1.87 in 2019 to 3.94 in 2020, and slightly increasing to 3.97 in 2024 falling in the range of good security. In contrast, all remaining dimensions revealed weakness and fell in fair security in 2024 except the governance dimension which presented poor security with a security index of 1 from 2015 to 2024. Looking into the future, under the business-as-usual scenario, estimations revealed a gradual increase of 2.05 within the fair security range in 2030, reaching satisfactory security with a 3.38 range in 2040. However, under an improvement scenario considering targeted improvements are made in weak dimensions, Kinshasa could achieve a satisfactory water security level by 2030 (3.38) and a good level (3.95) by 2040. This study provides both a retrospective and prospective evaluation of water security in Kinshasa, highlighting the necessity for policymakers to take immediate, informed, and targeted actions.