Assessing the Impact of Fast Variables on Resilience of Electrical Energy in View of Climate Change and Energy Security in Kenya

Abstract

This project assessed the impact of fast variables on resilience of electrical energy in Kenya. To achieve this objective, the study established trends in electrical energy selected system components, determined relationships among resilience metrics, electricity price, fuel shocks and electrical energy and developed scenarios for projecting future electricity prices for Kenya. The study focused on advancing empirical evidence in resilience assessment hence utilised both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Monthly and annual data on electricity generation, electricity prices, electricity sales, electricity imports and transmission and distribution losses was sourced from the Kenya National Bureau of statistics. Global oil prices data used was from West Texas Intermediate. Time series analysis, correlation and regression analysis methods were employed in this study. Further analysis for diversity, spare capacity and system effectiveness were performed. Electricity generation portrayed seasonality with generally increasing trend for most sources. Oil price shocks were found to affect both electricity price and generation while diversity and imports metric significantly correlated with electricity price. Thermal generation is used as a surrogate for hydro-power and holds most of spare capacity. A regression model predicted price outcomes against observed prices and could be used to establish future trends in electricity prices. Policy intervention measures ought to be taken by policy and decision makers to avoid over-reliance on hydro-power and thermal generation in a bid to stabilise electricity prices. This study will form a benchmark for understanding and deployment of measures for energy security in Kenya’s energy policy, vision 2030 and green growth strategy.