| dc.description.abstract | This project assessed the impact of fast variables on resilience of electrical energy in Kenya. To
achieve this objective, the study established trends in electrical energy selected system
components, determined relationships among resilience metrics, electricity price, fuel shocks and
electrical energy and developed scenarios for projecting future electricity prices for Kenya. The
study focused on advancing empirical evidence in resilience assessment hence utilised both
quantitative and qualitative approaches. Monthly and annual data on electricity generation,
electricity prices, electricity sales, electricity imports and transmission and distribution losses was
sourced from the Kenya National Bureau of statistics. Global oil prices data used was from West
Texas Intermediate. Time series analysis, correlation and regression analysis methods were
employed in this study. Further analysis for diversity, spare capacity and system effectiveness
were performed. Electricity generation portrayed seasonality with generally increasing trend for
most sources. Oil price shocks were found to affect both electricity price and generation while
diversity and imports metric significantly correlated with electricity price. Thermal generation is
used as a surrogate for hydro-power and holds most of spare capacity. A regression model
predicted price outcomes against observed prices and could be used to establish future trends in
electricity prices. Policy intervention measures ought to be taken by policy and decision makers
to avoid over-reliance on hydro-power and thermal generation in a bid to stabilise electricity prices.
This study will form a benchmark for understanding and deployment of measures for energy
security in Kenya’s energy policy, vision 2030 and green growth strategy. | en_US |
