Assessing the Climate Resilience of Urban Water Infrastructure: A Framework-Based Case Study of the Abuja Water Treatment Plant in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the climate resilience of water infrastructure, focusing on the Lower Usuma Dam water treatment plant in Abuja, Nigeria, amid escalating climate change impacts. The research aims to develop and apply a Conceptual Framework Approach (CFA), termed the E-TOES framework (Environmental, Technical, Organizational, Economic, Social), to assess the plant’s resilience status and enhance preparedness for climate-induced disruptions. Utilizing a multi-faceted methodology, the study analyzes 40 years of precipitation data (1983–2022) via Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), revealing a subtle decline in rainfall (4.1%–6.7% across peak rainy months), signaling potential water resource challenges. A systematic literature review employing the PRISMA method identifies key resilience dimensions, while onsite assessments and expert evaluations inform the selection and scoring of ten resilience indicators on a 1– 5 scale. These indicators, spanning sediment capture, flood protection, emergency response, funding, and community engagement, are integrated into the E-TOES framework, yielding a Climate Resilience Index (CRI) of 16% for the Abuja plant—indicating low resilience, with strengths in organizational (10%) and technical (4%) dimensions, but deficiencies in economic and social aspects. The findings underscore the framework’s utility in pinpointing vulnerabilities and guiding resilience-enhancing strategies. The study recommends incorporating additional climate stressors, leveraging machine learning for data analysis, and institutionalizing regular resilience assessments to bolster water infrastructure adaptive capacity. This work contributes a practical, multidimensional tool to the discourse on climate resilience, offering actionable insights for water managers and policymakers in developing regions facing similar environmental pressures.