Can timely planting through the use of climate services mitigate climate risks? An APSIM Model assessment for Kyangwali refugee settlement maize farmers

Abstract

Choosing the right planting date is crucial in adapting to climate variability. This study employs the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model to quantify the impact of timely maize planting in mitigating climate risks for smallholder refugee maize farmers in Kyangwali Refugee Settlement (KRS), western Uganda. The model simulates maize yield responses to variations in planting windows within the optimal growing season. Three planting windows were determined for model simulation, namely; early planting window (EPW), timely planting window (TPW), and late planting window (LPW). Results indicated that maize planted in the TPW, guided by climate information services (CIS), generated the highest yield potential during both the MAM and SOND seasons, an average of 3,299.7 and 3,535.7 kg/ha respectively. For maize planted during the MAM’s TPW, there was a 100% probability of obtaining at least 1,500 kg/ha yield. Additionally, there was a 54.8% chance of obtaining a maximum yield when maize is planted during the TPW of any season as compared to EPW (12.9%) and LPW (32.3%). For both seasons, planting maize during the TPW resulted in low failure rates (29.0% for SOND and 41.9% for MAM) and lower yield variability (23.2% for MAM and 39.9% for SOND) than other planting windows. The findings reveal that sowing maize within the TPW was associated with fewer climate risks, with the potential to significantly boost food security, enhance livelihoods, and contribute to broader development goals within the refugee farming communities. The study highlights the imperativeness of agro-advisory services and access to timely and accurate CIS to support refugee farmers in making informed sowing decisions. The findings underscore the vital role of timely planting in boosting agricultural resilience and contributing to the realization of Uganda’s Vision 2040, AU’s Agenda 2063, and the UN Agenda 2030.