Evaluating Wildfires Risk in Tlemcen, Algeria: The Role of Climate Change, Vegetation Health, and Drought Patterns

Abstract

This study investigated the complex interactions between climate patterns, vegetation dynamics, and wildfire activity in Tlemcen Province, Algeria over the period 2000-2019. Using an integrated approach combining remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and statistical analysis, the research quantified both directional trends and changing variability in key environmental parameters. Time series data from MODIS vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI), CHIRPS precipitation measurements, MODIS land surface temperature, and FireCCI burned area products were analyzed across four 5-year periods to identify significant relationships. Results revealed that climate variability, rather than directional climate change, emerged as the dominant driver of ecosystem dynamics, with widening interquartile ranges in both precipitation and temperature indicating increased environmental extremes. Vegetation health showed moderate positive correlation with precipitation (Pearson's r = 0.60) and moderate negative correlation with temperature (r = -0.67). Both fire frequency and burned area exhibited strong negative correlations with vegetation indices (r = -0.78), suggesting that in this Mediterranean semi-arid context, healthier vegetation with higher moisture content reduced fire susceptibility. Contrary to expectations, fire activity decreased substantially over the study period despite conditions theoretically favorable for increased fire occurrence. Land cover analysis identified significant transitions from forest (net loss of 23,000 hectares) to shrubland (net gain of 47,000 hectares), representing a shift toward more xeric landscape structure with implications for ecosystem services and fire regimes. These findings highlight the importance of considering variability patterns alongside directional trends and multiple interacting factors when assessing Mediterranean ecosystem responses to environmental change.