| dc.description.abstract | This study investigated the complex interactions between climate patterns, vegetation
dynamics, and wildfire activity in Tlemcen Province, Algeria over the period 2000-2019. Using
an integrated approach combining remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and
statistical analysis, the research quantified both directional trends and changing variability in
key environmental parameters. Time series data from MODIS vegetation indices (NDVI and
EVI), CHIRPS precipitation measurements, MODIS land surface temperature, and FireCCI
burned area products were analyzed across four 5-year periods to identify significant
relationships. Results revealed that climate variability, rather than directional climate change,
emerged as the dominant driver of ecosystem dynamics, with widening interquartile ranges in
both precipitation and temperature indicating increased environmental extremes. Vegetation
health showed moderate positive correlation with precipitation (Pearson's r = 0.60) and
moderate negative correlation with temperature (r = -0.67). Both fire frequency and burned area
exhibited strong negative correlations with vegetation indices (r = -0.78), suggesting that in this
Mediterranean semi-arid context, healthier vegetation with higher moisture content reduced fire
susceptibility. Contrary to expectations, fire activity decreased substantially over the study
period despite conditions theoretically favorable for increased fire occurrence. Land cover
analysis identified significant transitions from forest (net loss of 23,000 hectares) to shrubland
(net gain of 47,000 hectares), representing a shift toward more xeric landscape structure with
implications for ecosystem services and fire regimes. These findings highlight the importance
of considering variability patterns alongside directional trends and multiple interacting factors
when assessing Mediterranean ecosystem responses to environmental change. | en_US |
