| dc.description.abstract | This study assesses the future availability of water resources in Lake Guiers, Senegal, by 2050,
under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities, using the WEAP (Water
Evaluation and Planning) model. As the main freshwater reservoir of Senegal, Lake Guiers
faces multiple threats, including intensive agriculture, aquatic plant proliferation, conflicting
stakeholder interests, rising water demand, and the effects of climate change. Our methodology
integrates original field data on water quality, hydrological flows, and agricultural water uses,
combined with climate projections (SSP4.5 and SSP8.5). Future climate scenarios were
downscaled and bias-corrected using CMHYD, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and the
Mann-Kendall test. The WEAP model calibration yielded statistically robust results (NSE =
0.95; R² = 0.96). Climate projections (2015–2100) indicate a decline in precipitation of 0.66
mm/year (SSP4.5) and 1.71 mm/year (SSP8.5), alongside a temperature increase of
0.040°C/year and 0.080°C/year, respectively. Significant water losses were observed in the
Taouey canal (6.32 m³/s, or 546,048 m³/day), while annual agricultural water withdrawals
(79.33 million m³) exceed crop water requirements by 10.21 million m³/year, causing severe
inefficiencies. Scenario analysis reveals that high water demand combined with SSP8.5
accelerates the lake’s volume depletion, with critical declines beginning as early as 2026, while
a moderate demand increase (2%) under SSP4.5 could maintain water availability until 2050.
The PREFERLO_Grand transfer project, requiring 556 million m³ annually, is incompatible
with the lake's capacity, rapidly driving it toward the inactivity threshold of 149 million m³.
This research provides critical insights for sustainable water resource management and policy
development, offering practical guidance to address the growing climatic and anthropogenic
challenges in the Lake Guiers region | en_US |
