ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON ELECTRICTY CONSUMPTION IN UGANDA

Abstract

Climate change is a critical global issue affecting various sectors including the energy sector. Variations in climate can significantly impact electricity markets affecting hydropower generation and thermoelectric plants. These fluctuations can potentially increase outages, highlighting the necessity for informed policymaking and sustainable infrastructure. In this regard, the impacts of climate variability on electricity consumption in Uganda were evaluated from climatic conditions for the baseline period (2008 – 2022) and future period (2023 – 2060) under SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5 scenarios. Climate variables such as average temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were used for the baseline period, as well as GDP to represent the socioeconomic variable. Future climate projections from the mean of three RCM models downscaled by RCA4 were used in simulating future temperature scenarios. The study utilized the Mann Kendall trend test for trend analysis and significance of the datasets. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was then employed to assess the current and future relationship between climate variability and electricity consumption in three sectors: domestic, commercial, and industrial. The MLR models were evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage error and coefficient of determination (R2). The MLR model with temperature and GDP variables performs better than the model of only climate variables with R2 equal to 89.3%, 85.5% and 48.2%, for domestic, commercial and industrial electricity consumption respectively. The findings indicate that during the baseline period, temperature had a more significant positive influence on electricity consumption when compared to rainfall and relative humidity. Future projections suggest a temperature increase under both SSP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, which is expected to positively impact electricity consumption, particularly in the domestic and commercial sectors. Higher electricity consumption is projected for both the near future (2023 – 2037) and far future (2038 – 2052). However, the study found that climate variations hold no significant impact on industrial electricity consumption in Uganda. Drawing upon results from the baseline period and future projections, promoting the efficient utilization of alternative renewable energy sources emerges as a strategic approach to mitigate the burden on hydroelectricity generation and enhance resilience against climate variations in Uganda