| dc.description.abstract | Climate change is a critical global issue affecting various sectors including the energy sector.
Variations in climate can significantly impact electricity markets affecting hydropower
generation and thermoelectric plants. These fluctuations can potentially increase outages,
highlighting the necessity for informed policymaking and sustainable infrastructure. In this
regard, the impacts of climate variability on electricity consumption in Uganda were
evaluated from climatic conditions for the baseline period (2008 – 2022) and future period
(2023 – 2060) under SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5 scenarios. Climate variables such as average
temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were used for the baseline period, as well as GDP
to represent the socioeconomic variable. Future climate projections from the mean of three
RCM models downscaled by RCA4 were used in simulating future temperature scenarios.
The study utilized the Mann Kendall trend test for trend analysis and significance of the
datasets. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was then employed to assess the current
and future relationship between climate variability and electricity consumption in three
sectors: domestic, commercial, and industrial. The MLR models were evaluated using Mean
Absolute Percentage error and coefficient of determination (R2). The MLR model with
temperature and GDP variables performs better than the model of only climate variables with
R2 equal to 89.3%, 85.5% and 48.2%, for domestic, commercial and industrial electricity
consumption respectively.
The findings indicate that during the baseline period, temperature had a more significant
positive influence on electricity consumption when compared to rainfall and relative humidity.
Future projections suggest a temperature increase under both SSP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios,
which is expected to positively impact electricity consumption, particularly in the domestic
and commercial sectors. Higher electricity consumption is projected for both the near future
(2023 – 2037) and far future (2038 – 2052). However, the study found that climate variations
hold no significant impact on industrial electricity consumption in Uganda. Drawing upon
results from the baseline period and future projections, promoting the efficient utilization of
alternative renewable energy sources emerges as a strategic approach to mitigate the burden
on hydroelectricity generation and enhance resilience against climate variations in Uganda | en_US |
