ASSESSMENT OF FOREST COVER CHANGES IN SIMIEN MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK UNDER CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTHERN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious threat to forest ecosystems, including the Simien Mountains National Park in Ethiopia. This study examined the impacts of climate change, particularly temperature and precipitation changes, on the park's forest cover dynamics during 1983 2023. By integrating climate data, remote sensing techniques and vegetation indices, the study provided a better understanding of the complex interaction between environmental factors and changes in forest cover. The analysis showed a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, with the minimum recorded value being 832.76 mm in 2023. However, temperatures showed an increasing trend, with the average temperature increasing by 0.033 °C each year and the maximum temperature increasing by 0.059 °C per year. These climate changes were accompanied by a significant 37% decrease in forest cover, from 571.96 units in 1983 to 334.52 units in 2023, and a 22% decrease in the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) from 0.87 in 1983 to 0.68 in 2023. Correlation analyzes showed a moderately positive correlation (R² = 0.562) between precipitation and forest cover, while average temperatures showed a moderately negative correlation (R² = 0.585) with forest cover. The influence of maximum temperatures on forest cover (R² = 0.618) and NDVI (R² = 0.593) was more pronounced than that of minimum temperatures. The results suggested that the increase in maximum temperatures had a significant negative impacted on vegetation dynamics, with a 1°C increase being associated with a 40.62-unit reduction in forest cover. The increase in precipitation generally favored an increase in vegetation productivity, with an increase in NDVI of 0.0003794 per unit increased in precipitation. By quantifying trends and relationships, the study highlighted the park's vulnerability to climate change. The results contributed to the understanding of climate change in mountain forests and provided insights into adaptation strategies with the aim of increasing the resilience of ecosystems