| dc.description.abstract | Climate change poses a serious threat to forest ecosystems, including the Simien Mountains
National Park in Ethiopia. This study examined the impacts of climate change, particularly
temperature and precipitation changes, on the park's forest cover dynamics during 1983
2023. By integrating climate data, remote sensing techniques and vegetation indices, the
study provided a better understanding of the complex interaction between environmental
factors and changes in forest cover. The analysis showed a decreasing trend in annual
rainfall, with the minimum recorded value being 832.76 mm in 2023. However, temperatures
showed an increasing trend, with the average temperature increasing by 0.033 °C each year
and the maximum temperature increasing by 0.059 °C per year. These climate changes were
accompanied by a significant 37% decrease in forest cover, from 571.96 units in 1983 to
334.52 units in 2023, and a 22% decrease in the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index
(NDVI) from 0.87 in 1983 to 0.68 in 2023. Correlation analyzes showed a moderately
positive correlation (R² = 0.562) between precipitation and forest cover, while average
temperatures showed a moderately negative correlation (R² = 0.585) with forest cover. The
influence of maximum temperatures on forest cover (R² = 0.618) and NDVI (R² = 0.593)
was more pronounced than that of minimum temperatures. The results suggested that the
increase in maximum temperatures had a significant negative impacted on vegetation
dynamics, with a 1°C increase being associated with a 40.62-unit reduction in forest cover.
The increase in precipitation generally favored an increase in vegetation productivity, with
an increase in NDVI of 0.0003794 per unit increased in precipitation. By quantifying trends
and relationships, the study highlighted the park's vulnerability to climate change. The results
contributed to the understanding of climate change in mountain forests and provided insights
into adaptation strategies with the aim of increasing the resilience of ecosystems | en_US |
