Assessment and prediction of future Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for a Hydropower Generation: Case study of Boali Hydropower Station (BHS), in the Central African Republic.

Abstract

This research provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation at the Boali Hydropower Station (BHS) in the Central African Republic and evaluates strategic adaptation measures. Using a combination of observed climate data from 1991 to 2021 and climate projections from three regional climate models ACCESS, CNRM, and MPI under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the study reveals a consistent warming trend, annual maximum temperatures rose by 0.1091°C and minimum temperatures by 0.077°C, alongside a decadal reduction in precipitation of approximately 10.7 mm. River inflows into the M’Bali reservoir have declined from 68.5 m³/s in 1991 to 62.9 m³/s in 2021, resulting in a 0.0153 m³/s annual loss, impacting the hydropower potential. Projections indicate further risks under SSP5, with temperature increases reaching up to 6°C and declines in wet season precipitation, which could reduce electricity generation potential. Despite these risks, the application of the Random Forest model suggests average production could remain around 140 GWh per year under moderate scenarios, extreme conditions could severely disrupt operations. Adaptation strategies such as modernisation of hydropower infrastructure, sediment and water management, deployment of floating photovoltaic systems, and exploration of new hydro and solar sites (e.g., Labaye, Kotto…) are proposed to enhance system resilience. This study offers critical insights for sustainable energy planning in the face of climate change and serves as a foundation for future hydropower research in Central Africa.