| dc.description.abstract | This research provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change
on hydropower generation at the Boali Hydropower Station (BHS) in the Central African
Republic and evaluates strategic adaptation measures. Using a combination of observed climate
data from 1991 to 2021 and climate projections from three regional climate models ACCESS,
CNRM, and MPI under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the study reveals a consistent
warming trend, annual maximum temperatures rose by 0.1091°C and minimum temperatures
by 0.077°C, alongside a decadal reduction in precipitation of approximately 10.7 mm. River
inflows into the M’Bali reservoir have declined from 68.5 m³/s in 1991 to 62.9 m³/s in 2021,
resulting in a 0.0153 m³/s annual loss, impacting the hydropower potential. Projections indicate
further risks under SSP5, with temperature increases reaching up to 6°C and declines in wet
season precipitation, which could reduce electricity generation potential. Despite these risks,
the application of the Random Forest model suggests average production could remain around
140 GWh per year under moderate scenarios, extreme conditions could severely disrupt
operations. Adaptation strategies such as modernisation of hydropower infrastructure, sediment
and water management, deployment of floating photovoltaic systems, and exploration of new
hydro and solar sites (e.g., Labaye, Kotto…) are proposed to enhance system resilience. This
study offers critical insights for sustainable energy planning in the face of climate change and
serves as a foundation for future hydropower research in Central Africa. | en_US |
